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NWS:
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1002 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002- 010-011-019-140315- Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage- La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford- Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will- Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton- 1002 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023 /1102 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North Central Illinois...Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited Thunderstorm Risk. High Swim Risk Lake Michigan beaches. DISCUSSION... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible overnight in far northeastern Illinois. Severe weather is not expected. High waves are expected to continue on Lake Michigan into the overnight hours and will make for hazardous swim conditions at area beaches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Wednesday... Limited Thunderstorm Risk in the morning near Lake Michigan. Sunday... Limited Thunderstorm Risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight. GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY: Moving toward the southeast at 30 mph.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023
.UPDATE…
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023
Made just a few touch-ups to the going forecast with tonight’s
evening updates.
First, with a few nearshore buoys still reporting waves around 4
ft as of this writing, have extended the going Beach Hazards
Statement for all four of our lake-adjacent counties through
09Z/400 AM CDT.
Secondly, have introduced a patchy fog mention for our
southeastern CWA. Low dew point depressions at this hour and
light/calm winds seem to point towards at least patchy fog
developing somewhere in the area tonight, especially considering
that some fog developed last night in this same air mass. Cloud
cover remains a bit of a wildcard, though it appears that portions
of interior northwest Indiana and areas near and south of the
Kankakee River in Illinois stand a good chance at having skies
remain clear enough to permit continued good radiational cooling
there through most or all of the night. Guidance has also really
been liking this area to see some visibility reductions tonight,
so introducing some sort of fog mention here felt like the best
course of action. Can’t rule out patchy fog developing elsewhere,
but mixed signals in guidance and low confidence in cloud coverage
remaining sufficiently sparse precluded the introduction of a fog
mention into the forecast grids elsewhere at this time.
Lastly, the going precipitation forecast largely remains in good
shape with isolated/widely scattered showers currently trickling
through portions of northern Illinois as expected. Did opt to
introduce a slight chance thunder mention after midnight for far
northeastern Illinois and our Illinois nearshore waters as it
looks like up to around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may be present here
right as a localized uptick in convective coverage is advertised
in most of the 00Z CAMs as a 700 mb vort max swings into the area.
It’s possible that most of this activity ends up remaining just
northeast of our forecast area, but the spatial footprint of this
convection depicted in the 00Z CAMs goes far enough south/southwest
to warrant having some thunder mention, in addition to holding
onto high end chance PoPs in this area. There are also some signs
that a lake-induced mesolow could develop as this activity tracks
out over the lake. If this were to occur, then that would enhance
the potential for waterspouts over Lake Michigan late overnight
into early tomorrow morning. However, confidence in this occurring
in close enough proximity to our nearshore zones was too low to
justify an increase to our going slight chance waterspout
probabilities.
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
439 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2023
...................................
...THE ROCKFORD IL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 12 2023...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1905 TO 2023
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 75 2:51 PM 95 1927 77 -2 64
MINIMUM 51 1:06 AM 36 1975 55 -4 54
AVERAGE 63 66 -3 59
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 2.92 2019 0.12 -0.12 0.90
MONTH TO DATE 0.59 1.56 -0.97 5.36
SINCE SEP 1 0.59 1.56 -0.97 5.36
SINCE JAN 1 22.06 28.35 -6.29 33.45
SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 0.0 MM 0.0 0.0 0.0
MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE SEP 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SNOW DEPTH 0
DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 2 2 0 6
MONTH TO DATE 10 18 -8 10
SINCE SEP 1 10 18 -8 10
SINCE JUL 1 13 29 -16 12
COOLING
TODAY 0 3 -3 0
MONTH TO DATE 61 51 10 53
SINCE SEP 1 61 51 10 53
SINCE JAN 1 734 790 -56 921
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (340)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 17 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (340)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.3
SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.6
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 1:00 AM
LOWEST 37 3:00 PM
AVERAGE 69
..........................................................
THE ROCKFORD IL CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 77 99 1939
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 55 32 1975
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 12 2023.....SUNRISE 6:33 AM CDT SUNSET 7:12 PM CDT
SEPTEMBER 13 2023.....SUNRISE 6:34 AM CDT SUNSET 7:10 PM CDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
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