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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 154 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS LIVINGSTON IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BOONE DE KALB LA SALLE LEE OGLE WINNEBAGO IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE IL MCHENRY WILL THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALGONQUIN, AURORA, BELVIDERE, BOLINGBROOK, BOURBONNAIS, BUFFALO GROVE, BYRON, CAROL STREAM, CHICAGO, COAL CITY, CRYSTAL LAKE, DEKALB, DIXON, DOWNERS GROVE, DWIGHT, ELGIN, EVANSTON, FAIRBURY, GURNEE, JOLIET, KANKAKEE, LA SALLE, LEMONT, LOMBARD, MARSEILLES, MCHENRY, MENDOTA, MINOOKA, MORRIS, MUNDELEIN, NAPERVILLE, OAK LAWN, OREGON, ORLAND PARK, OSWEGO, OTTAWA, PARK FOREST, PLANO, PONTIAC, ROCHELLE, ROCKFORD, SCHAUMBURG, STREATOR, SYCAMORE, WAUKEGAN, WHEATON, WILMINGTON, WOODSTOCK, AND YORKVILLE.
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 Thunderstorms are erupting within a narrow moisture axis near the Mississippi River with a predominant supercell storm mode thus far. Aggressive southwesterly winds gusting 30-35kt will continue to advect the moisture plume northeastward, with the expectation for thunderstorms to expand in coverage and continue unabated into northern Illinois later this afternoon. The primarily threats remain damaging hail and wind. However, we can't ignore the tornado threat given strong low-level shear with recent VWP- derived hodographs from KDVN showing nearly 350 J/kg of 0-1km SRH. However, we would tend to think the best low-level flow will lift northward into Wisconsin closer to the surface low. Regardless, a Tornado Watch is now in effect for areas generally along and northwest of I-57 until 8 PM CDT. We time the arrival of the first thunderstorms to Ogle/Lee/LaSalle counties in approximately 2-3 hours. PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 1116 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023 A recent hand surface analysis augmented by regional satellite imagery depicts a warm front arcing from near Cleveland, Ohio northwestward to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and into a convectively invigorated low pressure system with minimum pressure of 999mb near Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A cold front arcs southward from the center of low pressure from central Iowa into western Missouri and eastern Oklahoma. The warm sector bounded by both fronts is somewhat "dirty" at this hour with showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across Illinois within a leftover region of low-level WAA along the southeastern flank of the aforementioned low to the northwest. Regional soundings show an impressive elevated mixed layer (EML) is in place across the Mississippi River Valley with both the 12Z DVN/ILX RAOBs sampling 800-600mb lapse rates of nearly 9 K/km atop a stout low-level inversion (+15 to +16C at 850mb). Low-level moisture is relatively scant locally at this hour, though a narrow plume of 55 to 60 degree dew points stretches from near the Quad Cities southwestward toward Joplin, Missouri. Where the steep mid-level lapse rates overlap with the narrow tongue of low-level moisture is a similarly-narrow plume of low-level instability characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery depicts a region of accelerated flow across the southern and central Plains, which was confirmed by the 12Z AMA/TOP RAOBs sampling 75 to 100 kt from 500-250mb. As the speed max rounds the base of an expansive upper-level trough across the central US this afternoon, upper-level height falls and warming surface temperatures will erode surface-based inhibition within the narrow low-level instability plume. Indeed, bands of thunderstorms appear poised to develop along and just ahead of the eastward-moving cold front first near the Mississippi River this afternoon and then eastward across Illinois. As storms progress toward Indiana, they may tend to outrun the low-level instability plume leading to a gradual weakening trend. With forecast MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km deep-layer shear of 45-55 kt, storm organization will be easily attainable supporting a threat for severe weather. Roughly 30 to perhaps 45 degree angles between deep-layer shear vectors and the cold front will support a semi-discrete storm mode with both clusters and transient supercellular structures probable. Accordingly, damaging winds and hail may accompany any thunderstorm this afternoon. While low-level wind profiles will suffer from a relative "straight" shape (e.g. somewhat veered low-level wind profiles), a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out particularly with any sustained supercell. If any localized backing can materialize, the threat for tornadoes would increase. The severe weather threat should be from 2 to 6 PM along/west of I- 39, between 5 PM and 9 PM between I-39 and Lake Michigan. If storms continue into northwestern Indiana, the threat could continue through 10 or 11 PM CDT.
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