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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 154 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

LIVINGSTON

IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

BOONE                 DE KALB               LA SALLE
LEE                   OGLE                  WINNEBAGO

IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

COOK                  DUPAGE                GRUNDY
KANE                  KANKAKEE              KENDALL
LAKE IL               MCHENRY               WILL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALGONQUIN, AURORA, BELVIDERE,
BOLINGBROOK, BOURBONNAIS, BUFFALO GROVE, BYRON, CAROL STREAM,
CHICAGO, COAL CITY, CRYSTAL LAKE, DEKALB, DIXON, DOWNERS GROVE,
DWIGHT, ELGIN, EVANSTON, FAIRBURY, GURNEE, JOLIET, KANKAKEE,
LA SALLE, LEMONT, LOMBARD, MARSEILLES, MCHENRY, MENDOTA, MINOOKA,
MORRIS, MUNDELEIN, NAPERVILLE, OAK LAWN, OREGON, ORLAND PARK,
OSWEGO, OTTAWA, PARK FOREST, PLANO, PONTIAC, ROCHELLE, ROCKFORD,
SCHAUMBURG, STREATOR, SYCAMORE, WAUKEGAN, WHEATON, WILMINGTON,
WOODSTOCK, AND YORKVILLE.

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Thunderstorms are erupting within a narrow moisture axis near the
Mississippi River with a predominant supercell storm mode thus
far. Aggressive southwesterly winds gusting 30-35kt will continue
to advect the moisture plume northeastward, with the expectation
for thunderstorms to expand in coverage and continue unabated into
northern Illinois later this afternoon. The primarily threats
remain damaging hail and wind. However, we can't ignore the
tornado threat given strong low-level shear with recent VWP- 
derived hodographs from KDVN showing nearly 350 J/kg of 0-1km SRH.
However, we would tend to think the best low-level flow will lift
northward into Wisconsin closer to the surface low. Regardless, a
Tornado Watch is now in effect for areas generally along and 
northwest of I-57 until 8 PM CDT. 

We time the arrival of the first thunderstorms to 
Ogle/Lee/LaSalle counties in approximately 2-3 hours. 

PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

A recent hand surface analysis augmented by regional satellite 
imagery depicts a warm front arcing from near Cleveland, Ohio 
northwestward to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and into a convectively 
invigorated low pressure system with minimum pressure of 999mb near 
Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A cold front arcs southward from the center of 
low pressure from central Iowa into western Missouri and eastern 
Oklahoma. The warm sector bounded by both fronts is somewhat "dirty" 
at this hour with showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across 
Illinois within a leftover region of low-level WAA along the 
southeastern flank of the aforementioned low to the northwest. 
Regional soundings show an impressive elevated mixed layer (EML) is 
in place across the Mississippi River Valley with both the 12Z 
DVN/ILX RAOBs sampling 800-600mb lapse rates of nearly 9 K/km atop a 
stout low-level inversion (+15 to +16C at 850mb). Low-level moisture 
is relatively scant locally at this hour, though a narrow plume of 
55 to 60 degree dew points stretches from near the Quad Cities 
southwestward toward Joplin, Missouri. Where the steep mid-level 
lapse rates overlap with the narrow tongue of low-level moisture is 
a similarly-narrow plume of low-level instability characterized by 
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. 

Water vapor imagery depicts a region of accelerated flow across the 
southern and central Plains, which was confirmed by the 12Z AMA/TOP 
RAOBs sampling 75 to 100 kt from 500-250mb. As the speed max rounds 
the base of an expansive upper-level trough across the central US 
this afternoon, upper-level height falls and warming surface 
temperatures will erode surface-based inhibition within the narrow 
low-level instability plume. Indeed, bands of thunderstorms appear 
poised to develop along and just ahead of the eastward-moving cold 
front first near the Mississippi River this afternoon and then 
eastward across Illinois. As storms progress toward Indiana, they 
may tend to outrun the low-level instability plume leading to a 
gradual weakening trend. 

With forecast MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km deep-layer shear of 
45-55 kt, storm organization will be easily attainable supporting a 
threat for severe weather. Roughly 30 to perhaps 45 degree angles 
between deep-layer shear vectors and the cold front will support a 
semi-discrete storm mode with both clusters and transient 
supercellular structures probable. Accordingly, damaging winds and 
hail may accompany any thunderstorm this afternoon. While low-level 
wind profiles will suffer from a relative "straight" shape (e.g. 
somewhat veered low-level wind profiles), a few tornadoes cannot be 
ruled out particularly with any sustained supercell. If any 
localized backing can materialize, the threat for tornadoes would 
increase.

The severe weather threat should be from 2 to 6 PM along/west of I-
39, between 5 PM and 9 PM between I-39 and Lake Michigan. If storms 
continue into northwestern Indiana, the threat could continue 
through 10 or 11 PM CDT.

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Officials have not yet released any information:

• To confirm anything (Nothing is confirmed),
• On the incident (What happened?),
• Possible alleged suspects, (Who may be involved?),
• If there is a possible threat to the community (Community in danger?), 
• Who to possibly be on the lookout for, (Who to be on the lookout for?),
• If they do release information, we will update this. 
  If there are no updates, officials have not released any information that we are aware of. 

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