UPDATE: Reports of Kyte River is out of the banks and flooding in Ogle County. Reports of 4.60 inches of rain has fallen in that area. The storms are training (Staying in one area, producing alot of rain) also reports of nickel sized hail being reported in Ogle County. Winnebago County is still dealing with a large power outage and some flooding in some intersections. Reports of several stalled vehicles due to the flooded roadways. No injuries have been reported. A couple of houses have been reported to have been struck by lighting.
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0302
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
915 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2018
AREAS AFFECTED…SOUTHERN WISCONSIN…NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 151315Z – 151715Z
SUMMARY…CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CELL REGENERATION AND
TRAINING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION…LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB 20-30 KT WESTERLY
INFLOW INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES) EXTENDING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS LOW LEVEL INFLOW WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SLOW MOVING BACK-BUILDING CELLS ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. IN
ADDITION TO AMPLE MOISTURE, MUCAPES ARE AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG…SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM
KMKX AND KLOT CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES/HR. OVERALL TREND SEEN IN LATEST GOES-IR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND, HOWEVER SOME EMBEDDED COOLING TOPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED. WHILE THE
HREF PROBABILITIES DO OFFER SOME SUGGESTION FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS THIS MORNING…OVERALL THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE…INCLUDING LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS NOT SHOWN TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UNFOLDING HEAVY AMOUNTS OR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED ACROSS THIS
REGION…HOWEVER THE LATEST RAP SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS…WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE AND UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL BACK-BUILDING AND LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH THE
ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
As of 7 am, COMED is reporting almost 1,000 customers without power in Winnebago County.
Several areas have had power surges. The area most effected by the power outage, is down near the Rockford Airport.
Almost 600 customers are without power down there. The estimated restore times vary.
As the storms roll through the area, they have produced heavy rain causing some minor flooding issues.
And frequent cloud to ground lighting. NWS issued a Flood Advisory for the area until 9:30 am
Flash Flood Warning for…
Northeastern Ogle County in north central Illinois…
Winnebago County in north central Illinois…
* Until 945 AM CDT
* At 650 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have
already fallen, with rates up to 2 inches in one hour near the
city of Rockford. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include…
Rockford, Loves Park, Machesney Park, Rockton, Rockford Airport,
Roscoe, Byron, Cherry Valley, Winnebago, Durand, Stillman Valley,
Davis Junction and New Millford.
Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.