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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest later today into tonight, with a regional severe weather outbreak possible. The most dangerous period is likely during the late afternoon and evening when strong tornado potential should be maximized. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are likely as well. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough, with several embedded vorticity maxima, will move east-northeast through the day across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The southwest portion of the large-scale trough and an embedded midlevel cyclone will remain in place near the Four Corners through most of the period. A strong midlevel jet (70+ kt at 500 mb) will move from the central Plains toward the upper Midwest/Great Lakes later today into this evening. The primary surface cyclone will move from the eastern Dakotas toward the upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Great Plains and eventually the Upper Midwest. By late afternoon, a dryline will extend from near the MN/IA border southwestward into the southern High Plains. ...Upper Midwest... A regional severe weather outbreak still appears possible across the Upper Midwest, with a threat of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and swaths of damaging winds. No major changes have been made to the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. Extensive elevated convection and a possible MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of ND/MN, and may tend to redevelop through the day. This could slow the northward advance of the warm front to some extent, but 60s F dewpoints are expected reach at least central MN into northern WI by mid/late afternoon. South of the warm front and east of the dryline, the environment is expected to become increasingly volatile through the afternoon, with strong instability (MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear, and a persistently intense low-level jet that will maintain very favorable low-level shear/SRH. This environment will be conditionally favorable for long-track supercells with strong/intense tornado potential. Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of diurnal convection across the warm sector. Guidance generally suggests that surface-based storms will develop near the surface low and along the prefrontal trough/dryline across southern MN, which could evolve quickly into a cluster or linear mode, though the environment would still support embedded supercell potential with all severe hazards possible. If development in this area is able to remain semi-discrete, then a couple long-track tornadic supercells could occur. Farther south into IA, stronger heating/mixing is expected near the dryline, though large-scale ascent and low-level convergence may be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north. While guidance varies regarding the potential for development across IA during the afternoon, any supercell that can initiate and be sustained could become long-tracked within the expanding and very favorable warm sector, posing a threat for strong to intense tornadoes and very large hail. As the surface low and related boundaries move eastward, organized convection may develop in place and/or spread into parts of WI, with a threat of all severe hazards and some strong-tornado potential. Farther west, a couple of supercells may develop in the region between the prefrontal trough/dryline and cold front, and pose a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts as they move across northeast NE/southeast SD into parts of MN/IA. ...Parts of KS/MO into the Southern Plains... While large-scale ascent will be comparatively weaker from KS/MO into the southern Plains, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible within a weakly capped environment. Instability and deep-layer shear will both be moderate to strong by late afternoon into the evening, and a few supercells may develop near the dryline. Large to very large hail and locally damaging winds will likely be the initial primary hazard, but increasing low-level SRH by early evening will result in some tornado threat as well. Additional strong to locally severe storm development will be possible overnight near the advancing cold front, aided by a continued nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet.
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Vape-N-Juice located at:
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