Our Opinion:
What Allegedly Happened
Based on the current information,
That has been provided to us.

Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Rochelle, Oregon,
Byron, Dixon, DeKalb, and Sycamore
222 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, strong westerly winds, and dangerous travel
  conditions expected. Total snow accumulations in excess of 8
  inches and wind gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee and De Kalb Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates may exceed 1 inch per hour at
  times. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are expected primarily Friday
  evening and may lead to areas of blowing snow and very low
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Through Saturday...

Key Messages for the Winter Storm:

- Major winter storm (>80% confidence in warning impacts in warned
  counties) with periods of heavy, primarily wet snow and strong
  easterly winds pre-dawn Friday through Friday evening and
  lighter snow with strong westerly winds and blowing/drifting 
  snow impacts lingering through at least Saturday morning.

- Winter Storm Warning issued for northern Illinois near and north
  of the Illinois and Kankakee Rivers, with Winter Weather
  Advisories south and east where confidence is lower in magnitude
  of impacts.

- Winter Weather Advisories issued for a tier of counties south of
  the Winter Storm Warning where snow is expected to change
  entirely to rain, and across our southern tier of counties where
  the combination of snow and strong westerly winds Friday night
  will lead to hazardous conditions. (In other words, all forecast
  zones will be in a winter headline Friday evening). 

- A period of heavy (60-70%+ chance of >1"/hour) to briefly
  intense (30-40% chance of >2"/hour) snowfall rates is likely 
  just prior to and during the Friday AM commute, centered over 
  northern Illinois near/north of the Illinois and Kankakee 
  Rivers, paired with easterly wind gusts to 30-35 mph.

- The next round of hazardous to dangerous travel conditions with
  1"+ hour snowfall rates will spread southeast mid Friday
  afternoon through Friday evening. Strong northwest to west winds
  gusting up to 45 to 50 mph Friday evening and night may cause
  blowing and drifting snow and very low visibility, especially on
  north to south oriented roads.

- Strong onshore winds off a still mild Lake Michigan will once
  again likely cut into if not eliminate snow accumulations near
  the immediate shore, especially late Friday morning through the
  early evening, including east of I-90/94 in Illinois, and north
  of I-80/94 in Indiana.

- After the "thump" of snow through mid Friday morning, the
  rain/snow line will push as far north as the I-80/I-88 corridor,
  limiting additional accumulations for several hours before
  changing back to snow in the afternoon and evening. 

Castro

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Saturday night through Thursday...

Key Message: Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills for most 
of next week, especially Monday and Tuesday.

After the snow tapers off Saturday, bitterly cold air will move into 
the region Saturday night and persist through most of next week. 
Subzero low temps are expected each morning Sunday through Thursday 
with single digit lows continuing into at least Friday.  Monday and 
Tuesday continue to look like the coldest days, with overnight lows 
from -10 to -15 for much of the area and wind chills dropping toward 
warning criteria levels of -30. Even during the daytime, wind chills 
may remain in the -10 to -20 range through Wednesday before 
"warming" into the single digits above zero for the remainder of the 
week.

At this time we are not seeing additional major storms on the 
horizon next week, but periods of flurries or light snow are 
possible as weaker disturbances move through the area. 

Lenning

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 129 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Key Messages:

* Increasing threat for rivers to reach bankfull mainly southeast of 
  Interstate 55 (Vermilion, Kankakee, Iroquois rivers and Sugar 
  Creek. 

* Increased threat for ice jams and associated flooding on all area 
  rivers from next weekend onward.

Discussion:

The hydrologic forecast for the next several days is complicated for 
the area due to uncertainty in precipitation types, precipitation 
amounts, and river levels during the upcoming period of very cold 
weather. Rainfall over the last several days, generally southeast of 
I-55, has increased soil moisture and river levels. With the next 
system tonight through and Saturday, a period of rainfall is also 
expected, with the highest liquid precipitation totals likely 
occurring again across to the southeast. As we enter the period of 
very cold temperatures Saturday into Sunday, attention will shift 
toward concerns for river ice and frozen soils. Although a period of 
temperatures averaging <0F for several days is often followed by 
widespread river ice and at least a few ice jams, elevated river 
conditions can increase the production of river ice further. With 
cold weather expected to remain in place for most of next week, a 
prolonged period of river ice generation will exist, along with the 
potential for significant frost depth penetration in area soils.

Accumulated precipitation on Friday prior to the changeover back to 
snow on Friday afternoon will be the most important factor relating 
to crests on rivers and streams. The HREF LPMM indicates 0.75-1.25 
inches, with the heaviest axis from generally Ottawa to Chicago. The 
NBM mean is slightly higher with 1.25-1.50 and a 10th to 90th 
percentile range from 0.9 to 1.75 inches. The NBM's heaviest axis is 
slightly different, from generally Paxton to Chicago. The highest 
overlap in QPF locations includes the Vermilion River Basin, the 
lower Kankakee River Basin, and the Thorn Creek Basin. To the south, 
in the headwaters of the Kankakee River Basin, precipitation is 
likely to remain liquid for a longer period of time, but more 
uncertainty exists in the QPF. River forecasts from NCRFC currently 
assume approximately 1.0 inches averaged across the Kankakee and 
Iroquois river basins, which yields multiple locations nearing or 
exceeding bankfull. This assumption appears reasonable based upon 
the mentioned model uncertainties. If some of the high rainfall 
totals occur, a few rivers may see minor flooding, but the chance 
for more significant flooding (moderate or major) appears very low 
(<5%) at this time.

By late weekend into early next week, temperatures will quickly 
become favorable for the rapid formation of river ice area-wide. 
Mild temperatures during December and early January may initially 
slow the development of ice due to river temperatures of 35-40F. 
Water temperatures will likely cool quickly, with rapid river ice 
formation likely by Monday. Isolated freeze-up ice jams will be 
possible across the area, but may be more likely southeast of I-55. 
Elevated river levels from recent rain and forecasted rain will 
likely increase frazil ice production. Ice-prone areas in the 
Kankakee River Basin will need to be watched carefully next week as 
even small increases in water level due ice jams will cause flooding 
due to elevated river levels. River ice flowing from tributaries 
into the Illinois River, in additional to river ice that forms 
locally, may cause impacts to shipping. Ensemble temperature 
forecasts suggest a low chance of high temperatures consistently 
exceeding 20F through next week, which may signal an extended period 
of river ice problems.

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