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Potential For Severe Weather Friday Afternoon/Evening, Keep Your Eyes/Cameras To The Skies!
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR MISPLACED LABEL ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...Discussion... Strong, dynamic upper low will begin to deepen early in the period as it tracks across the central Plains into the Midwest Friday evening. This feature will encourage a pronounced surface low to eject into southeast NE by sunrise Friday, then into lower MI by the end of the period. Significant moisture return ahead of the associated cold front will lead to an air mass supportive of severe thunderstorms from the mid MS Valley/Midwest into the lower MS Valley. ...Mid-MS Valley/Midwest Vicinity... Early this morning, a strong upper trough is shifting across western WY/Four Corners region. An upper low should evolve over the central Plains by late morning with further deepening expected as the low tracks into the mid MO Valley by early evening. Latest model guidance suggests a 500mb speed max will increase to near 110kt as it translates across MO into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period. As a result, intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 270-300m, will spread across the mid MS Valley/Midwest which should encourage the aforementioned surface low to deepen as it matures over northeast IA/southwest WI. Strong low-level warm advection is currently aiding a corridor of elevated convection from northeast NE across northern IA, along/north of a stationary front draped across this region. Latest thinking is much of the warm sector should remain convective-free through late morning until leading edge of stronger forcing spreads east in conjunction with rapid boundary-layer heating ahead of the cold front. Steep low-level lapse rate plume should develop across the central Plains early then spread/develop east-northeast across MO into portions of IA ahead of the front. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 18z immediately ahead of the low/front. Scattered supercells should develop quickly thereafter, tracking quickly northeast in response to the fast-moving upper trough/speed max. Discrete supercells should be the initial storm mode with very large hail expected. With time, strong forcing may lead to line segment and clusters. Strong shear will support long-lived updrafts. In addition to very large hail, tornadoes can be expected (a few strong) with these storms, especially prior to any line segment evolution. While the more concentrated storms should be noted across IA/northern MO into northwest IL, there is concern for more isolated long-track supercells across central MO into IL. All hazards can be expected with these storms. ...Lower MS Valley... A secondary corridor of concentrated convection is expected to evolve ahead of the front across the lower MS Valley. Early-day mid-level speed max that races across northern OK into MO will allow the front to surge into southern MO, arcing across the Arklatex by late afternoon. Surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s across northeast TX/western LA early this morning. This air mass will easily advance across AR into western KY prior to convective initiation. As a result, SBCAPE should be on the order of 2000 J/kg with very strong sfc-6km shear and low-level SRH. Any supercells that evolve within this air mass will do so within an environment that favors long-lived updrafts and strong tornadoes. Upscale growth into a QLCS is expected during the latter half of the period. Severe threat should spread east across the northern Gulf States Friday night.
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