Our Opinion:
What Allegedly Happened
Based on the current information,
That has been provided to us.
Most of the outcomes, are not known or final.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Limited Tornado Risk.
     Elevated Hail Risk...up to 3 inches in diameter.
     Limited Damaging Wind Risk...up to 60 mph.
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Limited Snow Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this evening, some could 
become severe. The primary severe risk will be large hail, 
possibly up to 3 inches in diameter. In addition, locally
damaging winds over 60 mph and a few tornadoes are possible. The
tornado threat looks to maximize near and south of I-80. 

Strong northwest winds are likely late this evening and overnight
behind a strong cold front. Frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
expected with brief gusts over 50 mph possible. 

Snow showers are likely after midnight. Some areas could see a
coating to one inch or so of accumulation and slick travel 
conditions into Wednesday morning.

Wind chills of 5 below zero to 10 above zero are likely late 
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Excessive Cold Risk.
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
  Elevated Fire Danger.

DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds will gust as high as 35 to 45 mph Wednesday 
morning into early Wednesday afternoon. This will produce wind 
chills as low as 5 below zero to 5 above zero Wednesday morning.

In addition, afternoon relative humidity values are expected to 
fall to around 30 percent and may fall a bit lower than that. This
may result in an elevated fire danger.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotters may be needed this evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

  Moving toward the east northeast at 35 to 40 mph.

Mesoscale Discussion 0163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Areas affected…Northern IL and far northwest IN

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 272050Z – 272245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…A few supercells are expected to develop over parts of
northwest Illinois and then spread east-northeast across northern
Illinois into far northwest Indiana through early evening. Very
large hail to around baseball size will be the primary initial
threat. A conditional strong tornado scenario may develop later over
northeast Illinois into far northwest Indiana.

DISCUSSION…20Z subjective surface analysis placed a 990-mb cyclone
near the Quad Cities along a pronounced cold front sweeping
southeast across the Upper MS to Lower MO Valleys. A bent-back plume
of relatively richer surface dew points from the mid to upper 50s
lies immediately ahead of this wave, along the northwest periphery
of the broader warm-moist sector across the OH Valley and lower
Midwest. Within the exit region of an intense mid-level jet shifting
east from the southern Great Plains to the Lower OH Valley,
continued ascent should yield sufficient weakening of MLCIN during
the 22-23Z time frame. Initial storm development is most likely in
the immediate vicinity of the surface low.

The environment will be favorable for discrete supercells forming
despite initially modest low-level shear. Amid very steep mid-level
lapse rates, large to very large hail production is expected, with
peak intensity around 2 to 3.5 inches possible. The primary
uncertainty is with how convection evolves downstream given the
relatively narrow warm/moist sector where storms develop. There
should be a tendency for convection to spread into a drier boundary
layer towards the WI border. It is plausible, within a scenario
highlighted by various 12Z MPAS members and occasionally by later
WoFS/RRFS/HRRR runs, that a longer-tracked supercell or two may
develop into the broader warm-moist sector across northeast IL into
far northwest IN. Low-level shear within this region will be
increasing towards and after dusk, which will conditionally support
potential for a strong tornado into the EF2-EF3 range (peak
estimated gusts around 120 to 150 mph).

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