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Rockford Scanner™: This Weekends Forecast… Enjoy The Summer Weather!


 





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NWS:

Today will be generally dry and seasonably warm, though an isolated, brief shower or storm is possible this afternoon,
mainly in the Chicago metro area and south of I-80.

A steamy weekend is on tap which could culminate in some showers and storms by later Sunday into Monday.
Cooler and less humid weather is expected Tuesday.

 

 

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
619 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

Through Saturday...

The boundary that sagged south and west across the forecast area 
Thursday afternoon and evening has stalled across the far southern
CWA early this morning. Around and a county or two north of the 
boundary, dew points have remained above 70F. Widespread low 
stratus has formed south the IL/Kankakee River Valley, with 
visibility reductions down to around two miles noted near and just
north of the boundary from Pontiac to Rensselaer. Recent obs 
trends indicate the boundary is starting to retreat as 925 hPa 
winds veer S to SW per KILX VWP. With existing stratus and a few 
more hours of cooling combined with very weak low-level isentropic
ascent on the shallow boundary should allow for continued 
expansion and gradual lowering of the the stratus deck. A narrow 
ribbon of dense fog is possible toward daybreak along and north of
the boundary into the Kankakee River Valley and WSW if the 
stratus deck lowers far enough. 

Focus will then be on the gradual northward trek of the boundary 
today as a weak upper-low drifts SE across Illinois. Model PV 
guidance depicts the upper-low quite well, but a notably dry air 
mass in the mid-levels makes for rather difficult tracking on WV 
imagery. The wave appears to be centered west of the MSP metro at 
this time. Per guidance, the influence of this wave primarily by 
providing a subtle source of lift may be noticed as early as late 
this morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers are expected to
form ahead of this wave, especially on the northward moving low- 
level boundary. But also like Thursday, a vast majority of the 
area will remain dry today.

A significant warm layer around 10-12kft and notably dry air 
above that layer will impede more robust vertical growth of the 
showers. The cap is not impenetrable though, with any saturation 
from previous failed updrafts potentially locally eroding enough 
of the warm layer to allow showers to tap into a layer of 8C/km 
lapse rates above 12kft. This is a distinct possibility as flow is
basically non- existent at under 10 knots through at least 400 
hPa. Also because of the limited steering flow, any storms that 
form will produce local downpours. Additionally, as was observed 
on Thursday, weak low-level flow and decent lapse rates under the 
warm layer may provide enough ascent for funnels to form from the 
broader background environmental vorticity.

Any shower activity should wane around sunset with the loss of 
daytime heating. The wave will also shift southeast of the CWA 
this evening, but stall over Indiana on Saturday. This supports 
maintaining slight chance PoPs across the far southeastern CWA 
through much of the day. Will also need to monitor for additional 
fog potential across the southeastern CWA tonight.

Heat index values will creep back toward 100F for portions of the
area on Saturday as dew points settle into the mid-70s outside of
the core of the Chicago metro and temps rise to around 90F.

Kluber

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Aug 5 2022

Saturday night through Thursday...

Fairly strong shortwave trough will track from the northern High
Plains Saturday night eastward near the Canadian border to the
upper Great Lakes by later Sunday night, then continue east to
Ontario Monday into Monday evening. 

Sunday will likely be another humid and very warm to hot day,
though will need to watch for outflow, debris cloudiness, and/or 
possibly some isolated to widely scattered convection potentially 
limiting temp's full potential just a bit. Didn't see any reason 
to stray from NBM which has highs near 90, but with dewpoints well
into the 70s, peak afternoon heat indices look to top out at 
least in the upper 90s, with 100-105 a good bet, particularly 
south of I-80. 

Shortwave trough passing to our north should allow convectively 
modulated front to gradually sag south into and eventually across 
the CWA Sunday night through Monday evening. Strongest forcing and
meaningful shear both look to stay solidly north of our CWA, so 
not expecting an organized severe threat. The very moist air mass
and resultant moderate to strong instability ahead of the 
boundary should support thunderstorms with very heavy rain and 
perhaps a localized downburst threat. 

The effective front is expected to become oriented parallel to 
the mid-upper level flow Sunday into Monday, which suggests it 
won't have much of a synoptically driven southward push. The most
meaningful southward movement will likely be the result 
convection/convective outflow. Not uncommon in these sort of 
situations for boundary to move farther south and faster than 
indicated in model guidance, which could mean an end to rain 
chances earlier. For northern CWA better rain chances could be 
done perhaps as early as Monday midday and by Monday evening 
southern most CWA. Given the uncertainties, maintained NBM pops 
and shower chances Monday night into early Tuesday, but wouldn't 
be surprised to see these rain chances lowered or even removed in
later forecasts.

In typical summertime cold front fashion, the transition to cooler
and less humid conditions looks to be drawn out and very gradual.
Eventually, should see some very pleasant August conditions with 
comfortable humidity levels and seasonable temps (or even a bit 
below Tuesday) through Thursday. Once the rain threat pushes south
with the Monday-ish timed front, we should see dry conditions 
through at least Thursday.

 


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