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Rockford Scanner™: Weather Watch is Likely to be issued shortly, Mesoscale Discussion 1382


 






Mesoscale Discussion 1382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and
   northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 052032Z - 052230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of northern Iowa into southern
   Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sufficient shear and substantial
   buoyancy will promote storms capable of damaging winds and large
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Moisture has pooled along a stationary boundary across
   parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F
   have allowed substantial buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop
   along and south of the boundary. Flow aloft remains strong enough
   for effective shear value of 35-45 kts. Given this environment,
   organized storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are
   possible. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus towers
   in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with greater agitation
   also noted in northern Iowa. Guidance has been relatively consistent
   with storms firing along the boundary. in terms of timing,
   observations would suggest that storms are most likely within the
   next 1-2 hours in Wisconsin/Illinois. However, additional
   development is possible into northern Iowa ahead of the intense MCS
   now in southeast South Dakota. Even without frontal development in
   Iowa, the MCS is likely to persist and impact the region. These
   areas will likely need a watch this afternoon.

 








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