Mesoscale Discussion 1382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 052032Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely for parts of northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Sufficient shear and substantial buoyancy will promote storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. DISCUSSION...Moisture has pooled along a stationary boundary across parts of the Upper Midwest. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F have allowed substantial buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop along and south of the boundary. Flow aloft remains strong enough for effective shear value of 35-45 kts. Given this environment, organized storms capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus towers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with greater agitation also noted in northern Iowa. Guidance has been relatively consistent with storms firing along the boundary. in terms of timing, observations would suggest that storms are most likely within the next 1-2 hours in Wisconsin/Illinois. However, additional development is possible into northern Iowa ahead of the intense MCS now in southeast South Dakota. Even without frontal development in Iowa, the MCS is likely to persist and impact the region. These areas will likely need a watch this afternoon.
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