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Rockford Scanner™: Updated Information On The Chance For Severe Weather Tomorrow


 





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Breezy southeasterly winds are expected in advance of an approaching warm front today. Inland areas will warm into well into the 60s today, but areas along the IL lakeshore will remain in the 50s for much of the day due to an onshore wind. The threat for thunderstorms through tonight will be low, but chances increase substantially on Wednesday as a storm system pushes a strong cold front into the area. There continues to be a threat for some severe storms in advance of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, but uncertainty remains. Otherwise, windy conditions, with gusts of 45+ mph, are expected Thursday in the wake of the cold front.

The threat for severe thunderstorms continues across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but uncertainty remains with the northward extent of this threat into northern IL. At this time, the higher threat area is generally south of I-80. Stay up to date with the latest weather forecasts for Wednesday.

 

.SHORT TERM…
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Through Wednesday…

The primary forecast concerns continue to focus on the severe
weather potential on Wednesday, along with the gusty winds later
today into Wednesday.

All is quiet across the area early this morning (albeit chilly)
under a weak surface high moving overhead. However, all attention
is focused on the sub 990 mb surface low currently organizing
across the front range of the Colorado Rockies. The low will shift
eastward across NE through the day, before reaching northwestern
parts of IA into this evening. This will result in increasing
east-southeasterly winds across the area through the day in
advance of a northward moving warm front. The warm front should
then surge north of the area either late this afternoon or very
early this evening. A strengthening southerly lower level mass
response is expected across the region tonight, and this will
support stronger south winds across the area tonight. Expect
speeds to at least sporadically gust in the 35 to 40 mph range.

Temperatures today will warm well into the 60s to near 70 across
most inland areas of IL and IN. However, easterly onshore winds
across northeastern IL will hold temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s for much of the day until the winds shift southerly into
early evening with the northward passage of the warm front. For
this reason, areas along the IL Lake Michigan shores will likely
not experience their daily high temperature for the day until
this evening, when temperatures should warm into the 60s.
Temperatures tonight will remain nearly steady in the low to mid
60s as the entire area becomes engulfed in the warm sector of the
storm system shifting into the Upper Midwest.

The threat continues to diminish for thunderstorms later today
into this evening in association with the warm front. As
mentioned in previous discussions, a very impressive EML will be
advecting overhead through the day. While this will result in some
very steep mid-level lapse rates shifting overhead, it also will
produce substantial capping. For this reason, the chances for
thunderstorms later today into this evening over much of northern
IL look rather bleak. The best chance for any storms into this
evening look to be farther to the northwest into southeastern
parts of WI.

Our chances for shower and thunderstorms will increase across the
area Wednesday. While this is the case, the extent of the severe
weather threat continues to be unclear. This owes to the fact that
shower and thunderstorm activity could be ongoing earlier in the
day ahead of the main approaching cold frontal boundary. This thus
adds uncertainty to the degree of destabilization that will occur
into northern IL during the afternoon. Another complicating factor
is the fact that there also continues to be some notable
discrepancies in the actual timing of the cold frontal passage
itself, which will also play a significant role in the actual
severe threat.

While local uncertainties continue to be elevated with these
finer details, the dynamic nature of this storm system will
support a good threat of severe thunderstorms, especially across
the Lower and Mid-Mississippi River Valley (roughly the areas in
the SPC day 2 enhanced risk). In this region, the combination of
strong forced ascent, impressive shear profiles and better
instability will likely favor linear QLCS type storm structures
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and even some tornados.
The northward extent of this notable severe threat into northern
IL remains the primary uncertainty at this stage due to the
aforementioned reasons. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts!

Heavy rain will also be likely with these storms during the day
Wednesday. The showers and storms will likely linger into early
Wednesday evening before ending from west to east shortly after
the cold frontal passage.

KJB

&&

.LONG TERM…
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Wednesday night through Monday…

A strong cold front with a powerful Spring system over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley will swing through the CWA during the
evening, ending the thunderstorm threat for much of the area by
midnight. See the short term discussion for details regarding
convective evolution and severe potential Wednesday afternoon into
early evening.

A gradually stronger pressure gradient with northward extent on
Thursday combined with impressive kinematics will yield rather
windy conditions through the day, with gusty conditions likely
persisting well into Friday. While guidance has backed off on the
strongest wind potential, deep afternoon mixing under mostly clear
skies in the large scale mid-level dry sector will still support
the potential for advisory level SW wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
for at least the north half of the CWA. Gusts to 25 mph should
persist through the night while some gusts to 30 mph are likely
Friday morning into the early afternoon before the pressure
gradient relaxes later in the day.

Wednesday’s strong system will leave a large remnant upper-level
low over Ontario on Friday. A trailing mid-level deformation/Fgen
axis will become draped across the CWA and into Lower Michigan
Friday into Friday night. While deep-layer moisture will be
lacking, a W to E oriented axis of light rain is possible over the
area.

This upper-low will drift eastward through the weekend as a weak
ridge shifts into the western Great Lakes. Conditions should
remain dry through the daylight hours on Sunday, though
increasingly veered flow on the southeast flank of a low-level
ridge over the north- central CONUS will shift winds NE off Lake
Michigan on Sunday. The unseasonably cold air mass will yield
highs in the 40s for much of the area, with locations along the
immediate Illinois shore struggling to rise above 40.

Unseasonably cold conditions will continue through at least
Tuesday as another upper-low forms across the southern Great Lakes
into the Ohio River Valley. Temps will likely fail to rise out of
the 40s each day amid cloudy skies and bouts of rain/showers.

 


If you have any information: 
RockfordScanner@Gmail.com


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