A threat for severe storms will all hazards–including a few tornadoes–exists today with the main severe window during the 1-9 PM time frame. Any storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding.
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If there is a Skywarn net activation, it will be held on 147.195
Also a little birdie told us some famous storm chasers just might be in our area today 😉
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, including a tornado threat, will develop across northern Illinois later this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms, some with very large hail, will be noted across the Plains. ...Northern IL... Upper low over southwestern IA is forecast to eject into eastern IA by 18z, then weaken some as it ejects into southern WI by early evening. 50kt 500mb speed max should translate across northern MO into northern IL during the afternoon, which will enhance shear and the likelihood for supercells immediately ahead of the upper low. Latest short-range model guidance suggests mid 60s surface dew points will advance north across IL into a region of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms should develop by late morning across eastern IA beneath the upper low, while downstream, portions of northern IL will experience a bit more destabilization as partial sunshine should allow the boundary layer to warm with surface temperatures rising into the mid-upper 70s. As a result, MLCAPE values should exceed 1500 J/kg within a sheared regime favorable for supercells. Latest thinking is scattered supercells will evolve by early afternoon near the IA/northwestern IL border then spread east toward the Chicago metro by early evening. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes can be expected with this activity. ...Northern/Central Plains... Weak large-scale height falls will spread across the northern High Plains during the day1 period as upper troughing shifts across the northern Rockies. Downstream, high-level diffluent flow should encourage cloud-top venting and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a surface boundary draped across the western Dakotas into eastern WY. Strongest boundary-layer heating will likely focus near the wind shift, thus greater buoyancy, and likely storm intensity, should focus along this corridor. Even so, progressive short-wave trough should nudge deep convection off the High Plains into portions of southeastern SD/northeastern NE late as LLJ is dislodged into this region during the overnight hours. Very large hail may accompany late-afternoon supercells. ...Southern High Plains... Broad troughing with weak southwesterly high-level flow will persist across the southwestern US into the southern High Plains Saturday as the mean trough remains located near 110W longitude. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-11C at 500mb) and very steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to extreme instability just east of the dry line over west TX. Strong boundary-layer heating across far west TX into the western TX Panhandle will allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures around 20-21z. As a result, scattered supercells should develop by mid afternoon from the TX South Plains, south into northern Mexico. Very large hail (possibly > 3 inches) could be noted with these slow-moving storms, especially early in the convective cycle.
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