Rockford Scanner™: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely To Be Issued Soon

The Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion for parts of the region with a 95% issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch just before 3 pm.  It is possible this watch will be issued just to the South of the Rockford area.  Full discussion is posted below!


Mesoscale Discussion 0413
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

   Areas affected...central/northern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 141937Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
   discussion area the remainder of this afternoon with a risk for
   large hail and damaging winds.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   issued prior to 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible imagery shows deepening cumulus in the
   vicinity of  the front over central/northern IL at 1935Z, and
   modification of the special KDVN sounding for current conditions
   shows little remaining CINH.  Thunderstorms are expected to develop
   and will likely become severe over the next few hours given an
   environment characterized by moderate surface-based instability and
   40-45 kts of deep-layer wind shear. Damaging winds and large hail
   will be possible, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued
   prior to 20Z.