There is a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Severe Weather across our area this afternoon and evening, with the main threats being damaging wind and hail.
The line of showers and storms that moved this morning were associated with the passing of the warm front that will set up to our north in Southern Wisconsin. Putting us in what we like to call the “warm sector” of the low pressure system center over Northern Iowa. Our threat for severe weather this afternoon and evening will come with the passing of a cold front as the low pressure tracks to the northeast across Southern and Central Wisconsin.
The latest model runs have isolated thunderstorms developing around 2 pm across North Central Illinois along and just ahead of the previously mentioned cold front (pictured below).
By 5 pm, a broken line of storms will develop to the east of the Rockford area along that cold front and progress to the east across far Eastern Illinois and Northern Indiana into the evening and overnight hours where the greater threat for damaging winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (pictured below). The threat for severe weather ending by around 6pm for the Rockford area.
Overall the severe threat this afternoon and evening should be